Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket39¢ → 100¢

Oct 19 forecast

Q backs Flávio Bolsonaro to outpoll Lula in Amapá because three pre-first-round runoff polls and Amapá's 2022 runoff history favor the Bolsonaro camp.

Amapá's presidential runoff is competitive but tilts toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Three Amapá runoff polls taken before the October 4 first round put Flávio ahead of Lula, and in 2022 the state's runoff flipped to Jair Bolsonaro after Lula had led the first round there. Lula's local allies also had a poor first round: the governor he backed, Clécio Luís, lost outright, senator Randolfe Rodrigues lost his reelection bid, and an Amapá survey recorded 52% disapproval of Lula's government. Against that, Lula narrowly won Amapá's first round with 212,503 votes to Flávio's 212,278, carried 12 of 16 municipalities, and one late-September Amapá poll put him seven points ahead in a runoff simulation. No Amapá-specific runoff poll has been published since October 4, so the picture rests on pre-first-round surveys, the first-round count and the state's recent runoff behavior, including the consolidation of eliminated candidates, where Flávio has drawn more endorsements. Markets currently treat a Lula win in Amapá as clearly unlikely, and the main reason this forecast is not lower is Lula's first-round statewide edge plus one favorable Amapá poll, which leave the state genuinely competitive rather than safely in Bolsonaro hands.

Points to NO

Amapá runoff polling conducted before the first round mostly showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, including a double-digit lead in one survey.
An Instituto Veritá Amapá poll from September 26 to October 1 put Flávio Bolsonaro at 55.1% and Lula at 44.9% in a runoff simulation.
Amapá's most recent presidential runoff flipped against Lula after he led the first round, showing the state's second-round electorate is not an extension of its first-round result.
In Amapá's 2022 presidential runoff, Jair Bolsonaro received 51.36% and Lula 48.64%, after Lula had led the first round there 45.67% to 43.41%.
Lula's main local partners in Amapá lost their own races on October 4, weakening the down-ballot coattail he would normally rely on in a runoff.
Lula-backed governor Clécio Luís lost Amapá's gubernatorial election in the first round, and Randolfe Rodrigues lost his Senate reelection bid the same day.

Points to YES

Lula actually won Amapá's first round, narrowly but statewide, and led in three quarters of its municipalities, so he starts the runoff with a real base in the state.
With all 1,914 Amapá sections counted, Lula received 212,503 valid votes (45.71%) versus Flávio Bolsonaro's 212,278 (45.67%), while leading in 12 of 16 municipalities.
At least one Amapá survey found Lula comfortably ahead in a runoff simulation, showing the runoff polling record in the state is mixed rather than uniformly against him.
An AtlasIntel Amapá poll conducted September 27 to October 2 showed Lula at 50.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43.5% in a runoff, with 800 respondents.

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