PolymarketSignal published
Hormuz Transits Set To Stay Below 40 Through July
Buy NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+10%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 8¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 92¢
Signal endedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast
Daily Hormuz transits will almost certainly stay below 40 through July 31 because ships running dark to evade attack never register on the PortWatch count.
Points to NO
- MarineTraffic tracked two tankers crossing Hormuz, July 14MarineTraffic tracked two tankers crossing Hormuz, July 14Evidence
- US demanded 20 percent cargo toll for Strait protection, July 13US demanded 20 percent cargo toll for Strait protection, July 13Evidence
- Large vessels transited Southern Highway without active AIS, July 7-14Large vessels transited Southern Highway without active AIS, July 7-14Evidence
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