Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Entry · YES63¢

PublishedSep 10

Sep 10 forecast

Most model and bank estimates cluster near 3.4%, so August year-over-year CPI inflation above 3.3% is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

August forecasts are tightly clustered around the cutoff, but more named model and bank estimates sit above it than exactly on it. July's 3.4% reading and projections for firm monthly inflation make a 3.4% August print the more likely outcome, while forecasts at 3.3% leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

July inflation entered the final month already above the threshold at 3.4%.
On August 12, the official CPI report showed consumer prices had increased 3.4% over the preceding year in July.
The Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast placed August inflation above the threshold.
As of September 8, the Cleveland Fed estimated August CPI inflation at 3.38% year over year and 0.36% month over month.
Several institutional forecasts expect the annual rate to remain at 3.4%.
On September 8, TD Securities projected that August headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4% year over year.

Points to NO

The economist consensus forecast lands exactly at the cutoff, which would not be above it.
On September 9, economists surveyed by FactSet forecast August year-over-year CPI inflation of 3.3%, down from 3.4% in July.

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