PolymarketSignal published Jul 15Q forecast updated 27d ago

Iran's July 15 Declarations Cement MOU Withdrawal

Buy YES

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

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Signal endedJul 22

Jul 15 forecast

Iran has very likely already withdrawn from MOU negotiations because its July 15 executive declarations rejected the deal and any future talks outright.

Points to YES

Iran FM complete withdrawal announcement, July 15
Iranian Foreign Ministry announced complete withdrawal from US memorandum, July 15
Evidence
Gharibabadi rejected future Washington negotiations, July 15
Deputy FM Gharibabadi ruled out future negotiations with Washington, July 15
Criteria allow substantive policy equivalence
Substantive policy of termination must be unambiguously communicated, even if specific terminology is not used

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