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PolymarketSignal published

US Iran Strike Pause Likely Completes 14-Day Window

Buy YES

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

24h volume $202kMarket deadline Aug 14P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+28%$100 paper stake
Polymarket64¢ → 82¢
Our position · YES64¢ → 82¢
Signal endedAug 4
Jul 28 forecast

The US strike halt since July 25 is likely to hold through early August, allowing a 14-day absence to complete by Aug 7—well before the Aug 14 deadline—though a pre-August resumption remains possible.

Points to NO
  • Trump has warned military action could resume if talks fail, and Netanyahu is expected to press for a hard line, creating escalation risk (ev6).
    Evidence
  • The Hormuz dispute remains unresolved and could trigger rapid tit-for-tat escalation that breaks the pause (ev3, ev6).
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • US strikes have been paused since July 25 with explicit presidential order and mediator engagement (ev1, ev2, ev3).
    Evidence
  • The resolution window only requires 14 days; with ~4 days already elapsed, only ~10 more strike-free days are needed, and the earliest completion is Aug 7—well inside the Aug 14 deadline (ev7).
    Evidence
  • US military advisers have reportedly questioned the effectiveness of continued bombing and noted stockpile pressures, supporting a sustained pause (implied in ev2, ev6 context).
    Evidence

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