Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES57¢

PublishedAug 26

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin is already trading above $77,500 after a powerful rally, so an August 28 price at or above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Bitcoin enters the final stretch above the required level with strong recent momentum and renewed investment inflows. The cushion is modest, however, and fading forced buying, nearby resistance and profit-taking leave meaningful uncertainty. An August 28 reading at or above $77,500 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is already above the required level, giving it a modest cushion that a short-term pullback would need to erase before August 28.
On August 26, a BTC-USD quote showed Bitcoin at $78,765, up slightly on the day after gaining 23.60% over four weeks.
Renewed fund inflows provide potential spot demand that could absorb selling and help defend the threshold.
U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.92 billion of net inflows in the week ending August 21, their largest weekly total since October 2025, with positive flows each day.
Powerful upward momentum makes a complete reversal below the threshold less likely over the remaining short window, despite increasing volatility.
On August 25, Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $79,739 after gaining more than 20% over three days, its largest three-day increase since 2023.

Points to NO

The retreat from above $81,000 shows that nearby resistance can trigger selling, raising the risk that another rejection reaches the threshold.
On August 26, Bitcoin traded around $78,970 after briefly exceeding $81,000 the previous day, while the short-covering rally was described as fading.
Elevated profit-taking could overwhelm the narrow price cushion if recent buyers continue realizing gains before the deadline.
On August 24, short-term-holder exchange inflows reached 28,600 BTC as the share of their supply in profit rose to 74.9%.

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