Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Signal ended

Entry · YES61¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 8 forecast

August estimates cluster above the threshold, so CPI inflation above 3.3% for the year ending August is favored but far from guaranteed.

July inflation was already above the threshold, and several August estimates point to a 0.4% monthly increase that would keep annual inflation around 3.4%. Elevated gasoline prices, tight fuel inventories, and continuing input-cost pressure support that outcome. The main risk is that easing core inflation and fading tariff effects pull the published annual rate to 3.3% or lower. Overall, an August CPI rate above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES

July CPI entered the final month above the required threshold.
On August 12, the official July release showed all-items CPI up 3.4% over the preceding year.
August forecasts point to another firm monthly headline increase.
On September 6, economists polled by Reuters expected August CPI to rise 0.4% from July.
The Cleveland Fed’s latest estimate placed annual inflation just above the threshold.
On August 28, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated August CPI inflation at 3.37% year over year.

Points to NO

Core inflation continued easing before the August report.
On August 12, the official July release showed core CPI slowing to 2.5% year over year from 2.6% in June.
Tariff-related core price pressure appears to be fading.
On September 3, TD Economics assessed that tariff-driven pressure on core prices had already peaked.

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