Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES62¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 8 forecast

Major forecasts cluster around 3.4%, just above the cutoff, so U.S. CPI inflation above 3.3% for August 2026 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

July annual inflation was already 3.4%, and the latest bank forecasts and survey consensus expect August to remain around that level. Higher gasoline prices support another firm monthly increase. However, the expected margin above 3.3% is narrow, so a modest forecasting error could put the published reading at the threshold rather than above it.

Points to YES

Annual CPI entered August already above the threshold, reducing the monthly increase needed to keep it there.
On August 12, the reported CPI-U index had risen 3.4% over the 12 months ending in July 2026.
The latest survey consensus places August annual inflation above 3.3%.
On September 7, the consensus forecast for August annual CPI was 3.4%, although individual estimates ranged from 2.4% to 3.5%.
Major bank forecasts independently converge just above the threshold.
On September 7, TD Securities projected 0.37% monthly inflation and 3.4% annual inflation for August 2026.

Points to NO

The projected result sits only slightly above the strict 3.3% threshold.
On September 7, Credit Agricole forecast August annual inflation at 3.39%, leaving little room for a downside miss.

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