PolymarketSignal published
Super Typhoon Dolphin Likely Missed China
Buy NO
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
24h volume $34kMarket deadline Aug 16P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−97%$100 paper stake
Polymarket68¢ → 99¢
Our position · NO32¢ → 1¢
Signal endedAug 8
Aug 1 forecast
Dolphin probably did not hit China by Aug 15, since JMA best-track data and news silence indicate it turned north then went extratropical east of Japan without crossing the coast, though an unreported fix remains genuinely possible.
Points to NO
- JMA best-track lists Dolphin becoming extratropical on Aug 18 near 23.4N 140.5E and dissipating Aug 19 near 24.1N 141.5E, with no Chinese landfall shown.Evidence
- No credible news source through Aug 1 reports Dolphin hitting China, despite active coverage of other typhoons (Noul, Bavi, Hongxia) that did make landfall.Evidence
- Forecast discussions through July 30-31 mentioned possible Zhejiang or north-coast paths, but by Aug 1 the trajectory had clearly shifted away from China's coast toward Japan and the north Pacific.Evidence
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