Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES77¢

PublishedAug 26

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin is trading above the threshold after a powerful spot-led rally, so an August 28 price at or above $77,000 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final stretch above the threshold with strong recent momentum and sustained ETF demand. Failed attempts to hold $80,000 and growing profit-taking create substantial downside risk, but the threshold remains below the latest trading level and near an emerging support area. Holding recent gains is therefore more likely than a reversal deep enough to leave Bitcoin below $77,000 on August 28.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's latest price provides a modest cushion above $77,000, making a qualifying August 28 reading more likely if nearby support holds.
At about 13:11 UTC on August 26, Bitcoin traded near $78,800, with initial support identified around $76,934.
Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows support demand through the remaining window and reduce the chance that recent gains fully unwind.
On August 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $314 million of net inflows for a seventh consecutive inflow day, taking August inflows above $3 billion.
The rally has not depended on expanding futures leverage, making it less vulnerable to a single wave of forced long liquidations.
On August 24, Bitcoin was around $77,800 after its strongest week since March 2023, while futures open interest had declined during the advance.

Points to NO

Repeated rejection near $80,000 and long-term-holder profit-taking could push Bitcoin through the nearby threshold before August 28.
At 12:38 UTC on August 26, Bitcoin was at $78,707 after rejection at $80,000, with profit-taking stalling the rally and a possible retest of $75,500 identified.
Elevated exchange inflows and realized profits create available supply that could accelerate a short-window pullback below $77,000.
On August 25, short-term-holder whales had realized about $1.2 billion in profit and Bitcoin exchange inflows had risen to roughly 53,000 BTC, their highest since June.

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