PolymarketSignal published
Iran Airspace Closure Unlikely Before July 31
Buy YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−96%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 1¢
Our position · YES38¢ → 1¢
Signal endedJul 31
Jul 24 forecast
With only seven days left and no formal closure order issued, Iran is likely to maintain partial airspace restrictions rather than initiate a general suspension by the deadline.
Points to NO
- No general closure order exists; airspace remains partially open with limited IFR and state exceptions (E2, E3).Evidence
- U.S. strikes through July 24 have focused on Hormuz, military bases, and nuclear-related sites rather than airports or aviation corridors (E4).Evidence
- Only 7 days remain, reducing the compound probability of an escalation trigger emerging and being acted upon before the deadline.
Points to YES
- Iran has previously closed airspace fully during major escalation (Feb 28, Jan 2026), showing the mechanism is available (E6).Evidence
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