Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Recent seat projections repeatedly fall within the target, so AfD winning 38–41 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag seats is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.
Several recent seat projections place AfD directly within the 38–41 range, including the latest trend-based composition at 39 seats. The outcome remains sensitive to small changes in minor-party support because crossing the statewide cutoff changes how seats are distributed. Direct mandates and compensatory seats can also alter the Landtag’s final size, while substantial voter uncertainty leaves room for a late shift. Overall, AfD winning 38–41 seats is likely, but the narrow range carries meaningful uncertainty.
- The latest trend-based seat composition places AfD near the center of the target range.On September 2, the trend-based composition assigned AfD 39 seats.
- Earlier seat compositions repeatedly landed within the target range rather than merely near it.On August 21, the election-trend composition assigned AfD 41 seats.
- Minor parties remain close enough to the representation cutoff to disrupt an exact seat forecast.The September 1 poll placed the Greens at 5%, BSW at 4%, and FDP at 3%.
- A substantial share of voters remained unsettled shortly before election day.On August 27, 31% of respondents were unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
- Overhang and compensatory mandates can change the Landtag’s total size, making a narrow seat range less secure.The 2021 election produced a 97-member Landtag because 14 overhang and compensatory seats arose.
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