Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 21 forecast

Recent inflation progress and the September cut make a hold at the October meeting highly likely, so no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is highly likely.

Recent data still show inflation above target but easing, while the September cut signaled room to pause rather than rush. Markets currently treat a no-change decision as clearly likely, and the main reason is that the Bank already eased in September while the next meeting comes before the September CPI release. Even so, the recent jump in oil and the weaker shekel leave some pressure to stay cautious.

Points to YES

The Bank cut rates in September, which makes an October pause the natural next step if inflation keeps easing.
On September 1, 2026, the Bank of Israel lowered its benchmark interest rate to 3.25%.
Inflation is still moderating, giving policymakers cover to leave rates unchanged while they wait for more data.
Inflation over the 12 months through August 2026 stands at 1.5%, and Governor Amir Yaron said inflation is expected to return to around 2% in the coming months.
The September rate cut was not unanimous, but it had broad support, suggesting the committee can also agree on holding next.
Four of five MPC members voted to cut rates to 3.25% on September 1, while one voted to keep rates unchanged.

Points to NO

A weaker shekel and higher oil prices argue for caution and keep another cut from looking urgent.
On September 15, oil prices surged to $107 per barrel and the shekel depreciated to 3.06 against the dollar.
Some outside observers still expect another cut, which leaves room for the market to be surprised if the Bank waits.
Leader Capital Markets Chief Economist Jonathan Katz said the next reduction would likely be in November rather than at the October 21 meeting.

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