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PolymarketSignal published

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Almost Certain To Hold

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?

Market deadline Jul 26P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake
Polymarket60¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 29
Jul 23 forecast

With no direct strikes reported and only days remaining, the ceasefire is almost certain to survive through July 26.

Points to NO
  • Tensions remain high and Israel has stated the campaign against Iran is not over, leaving a non-zero risk of direct action.
    Evidence
  • The window is very short (~3 days), but rapid escalation or miscalculation is always possible in a volatile region.
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • No direct Israel-Iran strikes have been reported in the available evidence through July 2026; the direct conflict remains suspended since June 2025.
    Evidence
  • The active escalation involves US-Iran strikes and Iranian attacks on US bases, not direct Israel-Iran exchanges, compartmentalizing the conflict.
    Evidence
  • The resolution criteria are narrow, excluding intercepted munitions, debris, cyber, naval, artillery, and minor drones, making accidental qualification unlikely.
    Evidence

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