Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 29?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · NO62¢

PublishedAug 29

Aug 29 forecast

Bitcoin fell below $78,000 after hawkish Fed remarks just before the pricing date, so a qualifying August 29 price is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin enters the pricing date with strong two-way volatility but unfavorable momentum. It moved from above $80,000 to below $78,000 after renewed inflation and rate concerns, while concentrated supply near the threshold could impede a rebound. Sustained ETF demand keeps a recovery clearly possible, making the qualifying outcome a meaningful underdog rather than a long shot.

Points to NO

The latest reference-rate reading was below the threshold, requiring a prompt rebound rather than simple price stability for a qualifying outcome.
At 4:00 p.m. New York time on August 28, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate–New York Variant was $77,605.70, down 3.13%.
Renewed inflation and interest-rate concerns triggered selling and could continue pressuring speculative assets through the pricing window.
On August 28, Kevin Warsh said inflation had not meaningfully improved, and rate markets increased expectations of a September rate rise after remarks characterized as hawkish.
Heavy breakeven supply around $78,000 to $82,000 may turn rebound attempts into selling, reducing the chance that Bitcoin holds above the threshold.
On August 28, Glassnode data showed about 3.7% of circulating Bitcoin supply concentrated at $78,000 and nearly 8% between $80,000 and $82,000.

Points to YES

Persistent institutional buying provides a credible source of demand that could produce a fast recovery above the threshold.
On August 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $242 million of net inflows, extending their inflow streak to nine trading days.
Recent trading crossed the threshold repeatedly, showing that the required rebound remains attainable within a volatile session.
On August 28, Bitcoin traded from an opening level of $80,058.25 to an intraday low of $76,868.08, moving on both sides of $78,000.

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