PolymarketSignal published
Israel-Iran Truce Very Likely To Last Through July 25
Buy YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Market deadline Jul 25P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 26
Jul 19 forecast
The direct Israel-Iran ceasefire will very likely hold through July 25 because the bilateral front has stayed structurally paused since June 24.
Points to NO
- Active multi-front conflict and US-Iran escalation create tail risk of miscalculation or preemptive action (E5).Evidence
Points to YES
- Confirmed absence of direct strikes from July 16-19 with multiple independent sources (E1, D1).E1, D1
- Regional violence is channeled through US-Iran and proxy fronts, not direct Israel-Iran (E2, E3, E4).Evidence
- Short remaining horizon (6 days) with reversible but stable state persistence and high current satisfaction (p=0.96).Evidence
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