Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Polymarket74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedJul 28

Forecast updated

Jul 19 forecast

The direct Israel-Iran ceasefire will very likely hold through July 25 because the bilateral front has stayed structurally paused since June 24.

The direct Israel-Iran front remains paused with high confidence through July 19 (E1, E2, E3, D1). Regional escalation is actively occurring but is directed elsewhere—US-Iran strikes, Iran’s attacks on regional states, and Israel’s Lebanon/Gaza operations—absorbing escalation energy and reducing the strategic incentive for either side to reopen a direct front in a six-day window. The final forecast therefore stays near the observed state, adjusted downward only for tail-risk rapid strategic shifts, yielding ~94%.

Points to YES

Confirmed absence of direct strikes from July 16-19 with multiple independent sources (E1, D1).
E1, D1
Regional violence is channeled through US-Iran and proxy fronts, not direct Israel-Iran (E2, E3, E4).
Evidence
Short remaining horizon (6 days) with reversible but stable state persistence and high current satisfaction (p=0.96).
Evidence

Points to NO

Active multi-front conflict and US-Iran escalation create tail risk of miscalculation or preemptive action (E5).
Evidence

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