PolymarketSignal published
New Claude Opus Unlikely To Ship By July 31
Buy NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−13%$100 paper stake
Polymarket82¢ → 84¢
Our position · NO18¢ → 16¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast
A new Claude Opus release by July 31 is unlikely because unverified leaks suggest testing at most, with no official word from Anthropic.
Points to NO
- No official announcement by July 17, Fable 5 promotions extended, and available models remain Sonnet 5 and Opus 4.8, indicating internal delays.Evidence
Points to YES
- Multiple unverified leaks and sightings on Vertex AI and Cursor point to an Opus 5 build in testing, raising near-term release probability.Evidence
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