QuotientQuotientQuotient
PolymarketSignal published

Israel-Iran Ceasefire On Track To Hold Through July

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+41%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 88¢
Our position · YES62¢ → 88¢
Signal endedJul 26
Jul 19 forecast

The Israel-Iran ceasefire will almost certainly hold through July 31 because both sides are channeling escalation into proxy and US-facing fronts rather than direct strikes.

Points to NO
  • Broader 2026 conflict included direct Israel-Iran strikes earlier, showing the ceasefire is structurally fragile
    Evidence
  • Iran’s suspension of cooperation frameworks and references to civilian strikes signal readiness for escalation
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • No credible direct strike reports in window through July 19, with qualified status at 0.93
    Evidence
  • Regional conflict is channeled into Gaza, Lebanon, and Gulf warnings rather than Israel-Iran direct strikes
    Evidence
  • Attribution confusion and official denials reduce the likelihood that ambiguous reports will count as qualifying strikes
    Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.