Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES54¢

PublishedAug 28

Aug 28 forecast

Bitcoin already trades above the cutoff with sustained spot demand, so an Aug. 28 price at or above $79,000 is likely.

Bitcoin enters Aug. 28 above $79,000 after a strong weekly advance, supported by persistent ETF inflows and substantial spot-market demand. The cushion is modest, however, and repeated rejections above $81,000, crowded bullish sentiment, options-related volatility and macroeconomic pressure leave meaningful downside risk.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s existing cushion above $79,000 reduces the size of the move needed for a negative outcome and raises the chance it remains above the cutoff.
On Aug. 28, Bitcoin briefly exceeded $81,000 before pulling back to $79,929.99, still above the stated threshold.
Persistent ETF inflows provide recurring spot demand that can absorb selling and help defend the threshold during pullbacks.
On Aug. 27, eight consecutive days of Bitcoin ETF inflows were reported to have attracted $2.8 billion, making August the strongest month of the year to that point.

Points to NO

Heavy overhead supply makes further gains difficult and increases the risk that failed rallies send Bitcoin back toward or below $79,000.
On Aug. 27, Glassnode identified $81,000–$86,000 as the principal supply wall, where several holder-cost and derivatives structures converged.
Crowded bullish sentiment leaves the recent rally vulnerable to profit-taking or a leveraged unwind that could erase the narrow margin above the cutoff.
On Aug. 28, sentiment was reported at 82, categorized as extreme greed and historically associated with local tops and unwind risk.
Options expiry and hawkish macroeconomic signals could amplify an adverse intraday move before the relevant price is set.
About 81,700 Bitcoin options with roughly $6.44 billion in notional value were scheduled to expire at 08:00 UTC on Aug. 28, with concentrated near-spot exposure capable of amplifying volatility.

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