PolymarketSignal published
Iran Very Unlikely To Shut Airspace By July 31
Buy NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+18%$100 paper stake
Polymarket30¢ → 18¢
Our position · NO70¢ → 82¢
Signal endedJul 25
Jul 18 forecast
Iran is very unlikely to order a broad commercial airspace closure by July 31, since its skies remain open and no closure order has been issued.
Points to NO
- No official NOTAM or credible wire confirmation of a general FIR closure exists as of July 18; airspace is open with advisories.Evidence
- Only localized closure documented (July 7 funeral ceremonies) with flights elsewhere continuing; does not meet general applicability.Evidence
- 13-day remaining window sharply limits time for a new kinetic escalation to emerge and translate into a formal airspace NOTAM.Evidence
Points to YES
- Historical memory cases show Iran has issued broad closures during direct strikes; residual escalation risk remains non-zero.Evidence
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.