Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 29?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · NO76¢

PublishedAug 29

Aug 29 forecast

Bitcoin remains below the threshold after a sharp macro-driven selloff, so an August 29 price at or above $78,000 is a long shot.

The latest supplied spot reading was below $78,000, and the day's high had also remained under the threshold. That follows a steep decline from above $80,000 as rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and leveraged-long liquidations intensified selling. Recent fund inflows and Bitcoin's demonstrated ability to move quickly leave some rebound risk, but a sub-$78,000 reading is the more likely outcome.

Points to NO

Bitcoin still needed an upward reversal because both the latest price and the partial-day high were below $78,000, reducing the available path to a qualifying reading.
At 08:04 UTC on August 29, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $77,484.67, while the partial-day high was $77,953.48 after a $77,839.19 open.
A rapid, liquidation-amplified selloff created strong downward momentum that makes an immediate recovery above the threshold harder.
An August 29 report said Bitcoin's roughly 3% decline followed the August 28 Jackson Hole remarks, while nearly $488 million of crypto positions were liquidated, including more than $360 million of leveraged longs.
The dollar-and-yield response to hawkish inflation remarks pressured Bitcoin and could continue restraining any same-day rebound.
On August 28, the two-year Treasury yield rose 7.84 basis points and the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.36% after the remarks, while Bitcoin subsequently broke below $78,000.

Points to YES

Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide an underlying source of demand that could fuel a sharp recovery toward or above $78,000.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $242.3 million of net inflows on August 27, their ninth consecutive inflow day, taking August inflows above $3 billion.
Recent large price swings show Bitcoin can cover the distance to the threshold quickly, preserving some chance of an abrupt rebound.
On August 25, Bitcoin crossed $80,000 and traded around $80,820 after rebounding about 38% from late-June and early-July lows below $58,000.

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