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PolymarketSignal published

Claude Opus Refresh Not Expected By July 22

Buy NO

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 22P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake
Polymarket52¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO48¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 23
Jul 17 forecast

A new Claude Opus is unlikely to go public by July 22 because credible signals point to a late-July launch at the earliest.

Points to NO
  • No official Anthropic announcement, pricing, or public model ID for Opus as of July 17
    Evidence
  • Market sentiment and leaks point to month-end or late July rather than before July 22
    Evidence

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