Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 2
Aug 31 forecast
Late polls consistently leave AfD short of half the Landtag’s seats, so an absolute AfD majority is a long shot.
AfD enters election week with a commanding lead, but every major late projection still leaves it short of a solo majority. Votes for parties below the electoral threshold provide a narrow route to extra seats, while remaining voter uncertainty leaves room for an upset. The most likely outcome is therefore a historic AfD plurality without control of more than half the Landtag.
Points to NO
- The latest seat projections leave AfD a few mandates short of an absolute majority.On August 31, current polling placed AfD a few seats short of an absolute parliamentary majority.
- Broad opposition to single-party AfD government limits its apparent closing-week upside.In polling conducted August 25–27, 54% viewed an AfD single-party government negatively, compared with 30% positively.
Points to YES
- AfD remains within striking distance after polling in the low forties.A survey conducted August 17–21 put AfD at 43%, far ahead of the CDU at 20%.
- Votes cast for parties below the electoral threshold could lower the vote share AfD needs for a seat majority.On August 28, ZDF calculated that 15% of votes going to parties below the threshold would reduce the required majority share to just above 42.5%.
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