PolymarketSignal published
US Warships Almost Certain To Transit Hormuz By July 31
Buy YES
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
24h volume $5kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−72%$100 paper stake
Polymarket34¢ → 10¢
Our position · YES34¢ → 10¢
Signal endedJul 22
Jul 15 forecast
US warships will almost certainly transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 because active blockade enforcement requires a naval presence inside the strait.
Points to NO
- CENTCOM deployed sea and air drones for strikes, July 12US forces used one-way attack aerial drones and sea drones for the first time during recent operations.Evidence
Points to YES
- CENTCOM resumed Iranian port blockade operations, July 14U.S. Central Command confirmed operations to block vessels from using Iranian ports officially resumed on July 14.Evidence
- US struck Iranian coastal defense capabilities, July 12CENTCOM forces struck Iranian military air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, and drone capabilities.Evidence
- President stated US would act as strait guardian, July 13Trump declared on national television that the US will become the guardian of the strait.Evidence
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