PolymarketSignal published
July 31 US-Iran Ceasefire Window Has Effectively Closed
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
24h volume $600kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+10%$100 paper stake
Polymarket22¢ → 14¢
Our position · NO78¢ → 86¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast
A US-Iran ceasefire completed by July 31 is nearly impossible because ongoing US strikes mean the required 14-day halt needed to start by July 17.
Points to NO
- Confirmed consecutive-night strikes through July 16 with CENTCOM waves and bridge-targeting expansions (E1-E6)Evidence
- Tight calendar arithmetic requires strike-free start no later than July 17 for 14-day window to end by July 31Evidence
- No credible cessation, ceasefire enforcement, or diplomatic halt signals in current evidenceEvidence
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