PolymarketSignal published Jul 17Q forecast updated 19d ago

Moonshot Poised To Hold Chinese AI Crown Through July

Buy YES

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

24h volume $39kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold−61%$100 paper stake

Polymarket49¢ → 19¢

Our position · YES49¢ → 19¢

Signal endedJul 24

Jul 17 forecast

Moonshot will likely hold the top Chinese AI spot through late July because kimi-k3 leads Chinese entries on Chatbot Arena with no competitor release documented before then.

Points to NO

The 14-day window allows surprise competitor releases and the resolution snapshot may differ from current visible tables.
Evidence

Points to YES

Visible Arena tables place kimi-k3 and kimi-k2.6 at the top among shown Chinese models with scores ~1486 and ~1461.
Evidence

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