PolymarketSignal published Aug 1Q forecast updated 9d ago

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Likely Holds Through Aug 2

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Market deadline Aug 2P(YES)

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Polymarket74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 5

Aug 1 forecast

With only about a day left and Israel on the sidelines of US-Iran fighting, no direct strikes are expected, making Yes highly probable.

Points to NO

Israel has expressed desire to strike Iran's energy targets and maintains broad aerial freedom.
Evidence
Iran has warned of retaliation linked to US and Israel actions, leaving open the possibility of broadening targets.
Evidence

Points to YES

Israel has remained on the sidelines since the interim deal and is not participating in US strikes on Iran.
Evidence
Iran's executed strikes target US forces and Gulf allies, not Israeli territory, through Aug 1.
Evidence
The remaining window is only about 36 hours, limiting the time for escalation planning and execution.
Evidence

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