PolymarketSignal published
Iran Set To Stay In Memorandum Talks Through August 15
Buy NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
24h volume $116kMarket deadline Aug 15P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution−4%$100 paper stake
Polymarket25¢ → 28¢
Our position · NO75¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 17
Jul 12 forecast
Iran is unlikely to quit the memorandum talks, preferring conditional suspension and blaming the United States over the unconditional termination a withdrawal requires.
Points to NO
- Araghchi conditioned final talks on US threat cessation, July 7Araghchi public statement demanded US honor signature before commencing final deal negotiationsEvidence
- Araghchi asserted Iranian MOU compliance against US Treasury violation, July 11Araghchi accused US Treasury Secretary of violating MOU Paragraph 9Evidence
- Pakistan and Qatar mediated ongoing technical talks, July 10Regional mediators pursued technical-level talks amid US-Iran kinetic escalationEvidence
Points to YES
- Hardline MP Nabavian criticized MOU negotiations as deceptive, July 11Nabavian stated negotiations historically resulted in broken promises and enemy benefitsEvidence
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