PolymarketSignal published
Iran Airspace Closure Unlikely By July End
Buy NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+23%$100 paper stake
Polymarket24¢ → 7¢
Our position · NO76¢ → 93¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
Iran will almost certainly keep commercial airspace open through July 31 because no broad NOTAM has appeared and the ceasefire remains largely intact.
Points to NO
- The July 7 and July 9 closures were explicitly localized to Tehran and Mashhad for funeral ceremonies, with flights elsewhere unrestricted, confirming authorities are not defaulting to FIR-wide measures.E1, D1Evidence
- No credible report of a broad closure exists for the July 15 to July 20 interval, and the airspace remains open as of July 20.
- The resolution window ends in 11 days, and the prior market assessment on July 19 placed the probability near 5.5 percent, reflecting the short remaining runway.
Points to YES
- Historical episodes show Iran can move quickly—closing airspace within hours during acute strikes in February and reopening in phases—so rapid closure is mechanically possible.Evidence
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