WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+257%$100 paper stake

Polymarket28¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES28¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

WTI has traded above the threshold amid renewed Hormuz conflict, so an August 31 close above $86 is narrowly favored.

WTI surged from Friday’s $83.40 close to intraday levels above $87 after renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges, demonstrating enough momentum to clear $86. Later quotes clustered only slightly above the threshold, while recovering Persian Gulf exports cap upside and leave the close vulnerable to a fast reversal. An above-threshold finish is therefore narrowly favored, with little protection against late volatility.

Points to YES

WTI traded decisively above $86 during the August 31 session.
On August 31, WTI climbed toward $87.50 and traded around $87.40.
Later supplied quotes remained above $86, although the cushion was less than one dollar.
On August 31, WTI futures were quoted at $86.56 within a daily range of $84.13 to $86.65.
Renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges increased immediate supply-disruption concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 30, the U.S. military acted against IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Iranian missile strikes on bases in Jordan.

Points to NO

Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the case for a sustained oil-price spike.
On August 31, Persian Gulf oil exports were estimated at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels as more vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI began the session well below $86, leaving today’s sharp rally exposed to profit-taking or reversal.
WTI closed at $83.40 on Friday, August 28.

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