Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES67¢

PublishedSep 11

Sep 10 forecast

Current estimates above 3.3% are reinforced by August’s energy surge, so U.S. CPI inflation above the threshold is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.

August estimates straddle the strict cutoff, but the balance tilts above it: a Reuters poll expects 3.4%, the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 3.38%, and Wells Fargo sees a strong monthly gain boosted by gasoline. The strongest contrary evidence is FactSet’s 3.3% median, reinforced by forecasts for softer rent and core inflation. With one-tenth of a percentage point separating the outcomes, the energy surge and elevated producer prices make a reading above 3.3% likely, though rounding risk remains substantial.

Points to YES

The latest headline nowcast sits just above the cutoff.
On September 10, the Cleveland Fed’s model forecast August headline CPI inflation at 3.38% year over year.
A broad economist poll expects the annual rate to remain above the cutoff.
On September 9, a Reuters poll expected August CPI inflation to remain at 3.4% year over year.
August gasoline increases add direct upward pressure to headline CPI.
On September 9, Wells Fargo estimated that gasoline prices increased a little over 4% in August.

Points to NO

A major forecast compilation places inflation exactly at the cutoff, which would not resolve YES.
On September 10, FactSet’s median estimate for August CPI was a 3.3% year-over-year increase.
Expected shelter cooling limits support from one of CPI’s largest components.
On September 9, Goldman Sachs economists expected owners’ equivalent rent to rise 0.22% in August, down from 0.26% in July.

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