PolymarketSignal published
Israel-Iran Direct Ceasefire Likely Holds Through July 31
Buy YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+80%$100 paper stake
Polymarket55¢ → 99¢
Our position · YES55¢ → 99¢
Signal endedJul 31
Jul 24 forecast
With only seven days left and direct Israel-Iran strikes absent since June, the ceasefire almost certainly survives the window as both sides remain focused on the US-Iran Hormuz conflict.
Points to NO
- Regional escalation is intense and miscalculation is possible; Iran struck Israel in June after a ceasefire, showing direct action can resume suddenly (E2).Evidence
- US strikes in Iran could trigger Iranian direct retaliation against Israel if Tehran blames Jerusalem for coordination, though recent reports emphasize US-only action.Evidence
Points to YES
- No direct Israel-Iran strikes have been reported since June 7, and the current conflict is US-Iran centered (E2, E3).Evidence
- The 7-day remaining window is too short for complex strike planning and execution, especially with both sides operationally committed elsewhere (M1, M3).Evidence
- The resolution criteria are strict, excluding intercepted munitions, debris, proxy actions, and minor strikes, making a qualifying NO event harder to achieve (E5).Evidence
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.