PolymarketSignal published Jul 19Q forecast updated 22d ago

Iranian Airspace Very Unlikely To Close Before August

Buy NO

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold+48%$100 paper stake

Polymarket37¢ → 7¢

Our position · NO63¢ → 93¢

Signal endedJul 26

Jul 19 forecast

Iran is very unlikely to close its airspace fully by July 31 because the airspace stands open as of July 19 with no closure notice pending.

Points to NO

Airspace has remained open since April reopening with no subsequent general closure reported.
Evidence
Recent US strikes and Hormuz tensions through July 18 did not trigger any airspace closure.
Evidence
Only 12 days remain until resolution, with no pending signals or escalation trajectory visible.

Points to YES

Conflict remains active and Iran has previously used airspace closures defensively; a sudden trigger remains physically possible.
Evidence

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