Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES65¢

PublishedAug 25

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin already sits above the cutoff after a powerful spot-led rally, so an August 28 price at or above $77,500 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Bitcoin enters the final three days above the threshold with strong momentum, sustained fund inflows and a spot-led advance. That cushion makes an above-threshold finish the more likely outcome, although overbought conditions, nearby resistance and demand for downside protection leave meaningful risk of a sharp reversal.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's existing cushion above $77,500 allows for a moderate pullback without defeating an above-threshold finish.
At 15:00 GMT on August 25, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate stood at $79,077.32, or $1,577.32 above the threshold.
Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows add demand that can absorb sellers and support the price through the remaining window.
On August 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive inflow session, bringing six-session net inflows to $2.26 billion.
The advance has reclaimed major trend levels, which can attract follow-through buying and provide support during shallow pullbacks.
As of August 25, Bitcoin had reclaimed its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages after spending much of the summer below them.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and nearby resistance increase the chance that profit-taking drives Bitcoin back toward or below the cutoff.
On August 25, Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,000 before easing toward $80,700, while daily RSI near 84 showed a stretched advance beneath resistance extending toward $84,000.
Traders continue to seek downside protection, signaling concern that a fast selloff could overwhelm the current cushion.
On August 25, seven-day options skew remained negative after Bitcoin's rally paused, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.

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