PolymarketSignal published Jun 29Q forecast updated 43d ago

Mine Clearance To Keep Hormuz Traffic Below Normal In July

Buy NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

24h volume $17kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold+48%$100 paper stake

Polymarket41¢ → 13¢

Our position · NO59¢ → 87¢

Signal endedJul 6

Jun 29 forecast

Strait of Hormuz traffic will likely stay below the 60-ship threshold through July 31 because slow mine clearance and wary maritime insurers bottleneck transits.

Points to NO

Physical clearance requires 40-50 days
Industry experts estimated safe mine clearance requires 40-50 days, June 25
80 active naval mines constrain flow
IMO estimated 80 naval mines remain in Strait of Hormuz, June 29
Evidence

Points to YES

500-ship backlog creates massive commercial pressure
Over 500 ships remain backlogged waiting to transit, June 25

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