PolymarketSignal published
US Strikes Make July 31 Iran Ceasefire Impossible
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
24h volume $600kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−14%$100 paper stake
Polymarket17¢ → 28¢
Our position · NO83¢ → 72¢
Signal endedJul 25
Jul 18 forecast
No US-Iran ceasefire can be completed by July 31 because confirmed US strikes through July 18 leave too few days for the required 14-day halt.
Points to NO
- Confirmed US strikes on Jul 16-18 (E1, E2, E4) eliminate the necessary start date for a 14-day window ending by Jul 31.Evidence
- CENTCOM describes sustained nightly operations, indicating institutional momentum rather than imminent cessation.Evidence
- Only 13 days remain, and the window requires a backward-looking 14-day stretch; the timeline is structurally closed.Evidence
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