PolymarketSignal published
Direct U.S. Anti-Cartel Strike Abroad Uncertain By Deadline
Buy NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
24h volume $105kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+614%$100 paper stake
Polymarket86¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO14¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 3
Jul 30 forecast
With only a day remaining and no confirmed direct U.S. operation on foreign soil reported, the result is about even, driven mainly by the absence of visible mobilization against a possible hidden final-day action.
Points to NO
- No reports or official statements confirm direct U.S. ground participation or kinetic strikes on foreign soil between June 17 and July 30, 2026.Evidence
- The remaining window is approximately one day, making both execution and confirmation of a complex direct operation highly improbable.Evidence
- Prior direct joint actions (e.g., Ecuador in March) fall outside the June 17 start of the qualifying window.Evidence
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