PolymarketSignal published
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through Deadline
Buy YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
Market deadline Jul 26P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket70¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 29
Jul 24 forecast
With the conflict focused on US-Iran fighting and no direct strikes reported, the ceasefire almost certainly continues through July 26.
Points to NO
- The broader conflict is volatile and the Israel-Iran ceasefire has been fragile historically, leaving a small chance of sudden escalation.Evidence
Points to YES
- All recent credible reporting describes US-Iran strikes and Iranian retaliation against US/Gulf targets, with no mention of direct Israel-Iran strikes in the resolution window.Evidence
- The remaining time window is approximately one to two days, which severely constrains the ability to organize and execute a qualifying direct strike.Evidence
- Earlier official statements indicate Israel is in a ceasefire posture and closely monitoring, not actively engaging Iran directly.Evidence
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