PolymarketSignal published
US-Iran Conflict Too Hot For 14-Day Strike Pause
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
24h volume $234kMarket deadline Aug 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−70%$100 paper stake
Polymarket55¢ → 87¢
Our position · NO45¢ → 13¢
Signal endedAug 6
Jul 30 forecast
A continuous 14-day US strike pause on Iran is very unlikely by Aug 31 because the conflict just resumed with heavy strikes on July 29 and both sides are actively retaliating.
Points to NO
- US strikes on Iran resumed July 29 after a brief pause, with CENTCOM confirming a heavy wave of attacks on IRGC targets.Evidence
- Iran pledged retaliation on July 30 and struck Jordan and Kuwait, maintaining pressure that makes US inaction unlikely.Evidence
- Diplomatic efforts are described as faltering, with no direct talks confirmed and deep mistrust between Washington and Tehran.Evidence
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