Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Entry · YES61¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 8 forecast

Major forecasts cluster around 3.4% after July registered 3.4%, so August year-over-year CPI inflation above 3.3% is likely.

The outlook is concentrated just above the cutoff rather than comfortably above it. July’s 3.4% annual rate provides a favorable starting point, and major institutional forecasts expect enough monthly inflation to preserve that reading. The main risk is a softer surprise, since the published forecast range extends well below the threshold.

Points to YES

July inflation was already above the threshold, limiting the slowdown August must avoid.
For the 12 months ending in July 2026, CPI-U rose 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.
Economists broadly expect another substantial monthly increase in consumer prices.
On September 6, economists polled by Reuters forecast a 0.4% rise in the August 2026 CPI.
TD Securities sees annual inflation remaining above the threshold with additional upside risk.
On September 7, TD Securities forecast a 0.37% monthly increase and 3.4% annual inflation, while noting upside risk if goods prices decline less than assumed.

Points to NO

The forecast distribution includes outcomes far below the threshold, showing meaningful downside uncertainty.
On September 7, FinancialJuice reported that the forecast range for August annual CPI extended down to 2.4%, despite a 3.4% headline consensus.

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