Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 29?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · NO63¢

PublishedAug 28

Aug 28 forecast

A late selloff left Bitcoin below the threshold amid hawkish rate repricing, so a qualifying August 29 price at or above $78,000 is unlikely but still live.

Bitcoin entered the final window just below $78,000 after a sharp selloff triggered by renewed inflation and interest-rate concerns. The small gap and strong ETF demand preserve a plausible rebound, but recent downward momentum and selling pressure around nearby breakeven levels make an above-threshold reading unlikely but still live.

Points to NO

The latest benchmark reading was below $78,000 after a sharp daily decline, leaving Bitcoin needing an immediate rebound during a weakening short-term trend.
At 4:00 p.m. New York time on August 28, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate–New York Variant was $77,605.70, down 3.13%.
Renewed expectations of tighter monetary policy can weigh on speculative assets and make a rapid Bitcoin recovery harder to sustain.
On August 28, Kevin Warsh's inflation-focused remarks increased expectations of a September interest-rate increase and were characterized as hawkish.
Concentrated holder cost bases near the threshold create breakeven selling that can interrupt rebound attempts before they become durable.
On August 28, nearly 8% of circulating Bitcoin supply was reported between $80,000 and $82,000, with about 3.7% concentrated at $78,000.

Points to YES

Persistent ETF inflows provide spot demand that could quickly lift Bitcoin back across the nearby threshold.
On August 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $242 million of net inflows, extending their inflow streak to nine consecutive days.
Recent trading on both sides of $78,000 shows that the remaining gap is readily traversable, keeping an above-threshold outcome live despite the selloff.
On August 28, Bitcoin traded from an opening level of $80,058.25 down to an intraday low of $76,868.08, crossing the threshold during the session.

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