Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket46¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO54¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Anthropic has not confirmed a successor and still restricts Mythos access, so a qualifying public model release by September 1 is a meaningful underdog.

Recent reports suggest Anthropic may be testing a Fable successor, leaving a credible path to a rapid launch. Yet the company has neither confirmed that model nor listed a later Mythos-class release, while its treatment of powerful Mythos models remains cautious and access-restricted. With little time for testing, safety approval, announcement, and general availability, a qualifying release remains a meaningful underdog despite the possibility of abrupt news.

Points to NO

The absence of an official successor announcement or release listing leaves too little visible launch preparation, lowering the chance of general availability by the deadline.
Anthropic’s release notes through August 25 listed Fable 5 as its latest Mythos-class launch and no later qualifying public model.
Anthropic’s continued restriction of powerful Mythos access makes a sudden general-public opening harder, reducing the chance that any imminent model meets the accessibility requirement.
On August 27, the BBC reported that Mythos access remained restricted because Anthropic considered the model too powerful to fall into the wrong hands.
The strongest reported internal successor is not intended for external deployment, making it less likely that Anthropic’s known advanced work can become a qualifying public release in time.
Anthropic’s August risk report, summarized on August 16, said it had no current plans to release Model 2 externally and had not completed its full predeployment assessments.

Points to YES

Reported successor testing creates a plausible rapid-release path, raising the chance that a prepared Fable update appears before the deadline despite the lack of confirmation.
On August 27, a report claimed developers had observed alleged Fable-level checkpoints in limited testing and that some users reported a quiet Fable 5.1 web rollout.
Anthropic’s own dashboard reference to multiple Mythos-class models suggests additional candidates exist, modestly increasing the possibility that one is close to launch.
An August 26 dashboard update said Anthropic’s latest candidate count incorporated findings from Mythos Preview and other Mythos-class models without identifying them or claiming public release.

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