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PolymarketSignal published

Iran Set To Suspend, Not Quit, MOU Talks

Buy NO

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

24h volume $116kMarket deadline Aug 15P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+34%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 17¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 17
Jul 13 forecast

Iran is unlikely to announce MOU withdrawal by August 15, because it prefers a conditional suspension blaming Washington over an unconditional exit.

Points to NO
  • Baghaei confirmed reciprocal stance on MOU obligations, July 12
    Baghaei affirmed conditional adherence based on US compliance, July 12
    Evidence
  • Foreign Ministry halted obligations citing non-compliance, July 13
    Foreign Ministry declared halt to MOU obligations over non-compliance, July 13
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Khamenei publicly shifted MOU responsibility to Pezeshkian, July 13
    Khamenei publicly distanced himself from MOU agreement, July 13
    Evidence

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