Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES62¢

PublishedSep 7

Sep 7 forecast

July inflation stood just above the threshold before an expected energy-led August increase, so year-over-year CPI inflation above 3.3% in August is likely.

Headline CPI entered August at 3.4%, already above the threshold, while forecasters expected a sizable energy-led monthly increase. Elevated gasoline prices, lean inventories, and persistent business input costs support that view. However, annual inflation has recently declined, core inflation is softer, rents are subdued, and tariff effects appear to be fading. An August reading above 3.3% is likely, but the narrow cushion creates meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

July’s inflation rate left a narrow cushion above the threshold before August prices were counted.
For the 12 months ending July 2026, all-items CPI inflation was 3.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point above the threshold.
Economists expected a substantial August monthly increase that would help preserve the annual rate above the threshold.
On September 6, 2026, economists polled by Reuters expected CPI to increase 0.4% from July to August.
A direct estimate of August inflation remained above the threshold, although only narrowly.
On September 4, 2026, the Cleveland Fed nowcast placed August year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.38%.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation was considerably softer than headline inflation, limiting the breadth of price pressure.
For the 12 months ending July 2026, core CPI inflation was 2.5%.
Fading tariff effects reduce a previously important source of goods inflation.
On September 3, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said tariff price effects had largely passed through inflation.

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