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PolymarketSignal published

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Probable Through Mid-August

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

24h volume $22kMarket deadline Aug 15P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+24%$100 paper stake
Polymarket72¢ → 90¢
Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 17
Jul 30 forecast

With Israel sidelined from US-Iran fighting and only 16 days remaining, direct strikes between Israel and Iran are probable not to occur, so the ceasefire likely holds.

Points to NO
  • Israel and Iran remain in a state of extreme hostility with prior direct strikes in 2024-2025, and Israel's leadership is committed to preventing Iranian nuclear weapons.
    Evidence
  • Private military planning and backchannel dynamics are unknown; non-public information risk is material (~25%).
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Israel has not joined US strikes on Iran and was sidelined during the late-July escalation, reducing direct conflict exposure.
    Evidence
  • Only 16 days remain in the window, limiting time for either side to plan and execute a direct strike.
    Evidence
  • Netanyahu's July 29 White House talks were described as positive, suggesting US-Israel coordination rather than unilateral Israeli action.
    Evidence

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