PolymarketSignal published
Iranian Blockade Expected To Persist Past August 15
Buy NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Market deadline Aug 15P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+5%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 33¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 67¢
Signal endedJul 22
Jul 15 forecast
The United States is very unlikely to announce an end to the Iranian blockade by August 15 because recent kinetic escalation leaves no room for a diplomatic resolution.
No factor breakdown on this forecast.
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