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PolymarketSignal published

No Qualifying Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting Expected By July 31

Buy NO

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+86%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 30¢
Our position · NO38¢ → 70¢
Signal endedJul 22
Jul 15 forecast

A qualifying Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting is unlikely by July 31 because Ukraine deliberately frames working-level contacts as non-diplomatic, keeping them outside the market's definition.

Points to NO
  • Resolution criteria explicitly excluded non-diplomatic encounters
  • Ukraine deliberately stripped ombudsman track of diplomatic status
    Evidence
  • Putin demanded territorial realities for peace talks, June 23
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Lantratova anticipated upcoming ombudsman meeting, July 2
    Evidence

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