Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Realized · 7-day hold−2%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 75¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 75¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedSep 3
Aug 29 forecast
The latest election trend projects 39 AfD seats, so an AfD total of 38–41 seats is likely.
The latest trend places the AfD near the center of the target range, supported by several August polls showing broadly similar vote shares. Smaller parties remaining below the entry threshold would reinforce that seat conversion. The narrow range still leaves meaningful uncertainty because modest polling error, threshold changes, direct mandates, or compensatory seats could move the final total outside it.
Points to YES
- The latest seat projection lands near the middle of the target, making a 38–41-seat finish more likely.On August 29, PolitPro's election trend projected the AfD to receive 39 seats.
- Several August polls cluster around similar AfD support levels, reducing the chance that the central seat estimate rests on one unusual survey.As reported on August 29, four August polls placed AfD support between 40% and 43%.
- Several smaller parties remain below the entry threshold, concentrating represented votes among fewer parties and supporting an AfD seat total within the target.On August 29, the weighted trend put BSW at 3.9% and the FDP at 3.2%, while projecting five parties to enter the Landtag.
Points to NO
- A recent alternative conversion produced 37 AfD seats, showing that plausible seat assumptions can place the party just below the target.On August 28, one published calculation applied a referenced poll to the Landtag's regular size and produced 37 AfD seats.
- Unsettled voters leave room for a late shift that could push the AfD below or above the narrow seat range.In the August 24–25 Infratest dimap survey, 11% said their preference could still change and 19% leaned toward not voting or expressed no party preference.
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