PolymarketSignal published
US Iran Strike Pause Too Late For July 31 Ceasefire Window
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
24h volume $600kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−49%$100 paper stake
Polymarket56¢ → 78¢
Our position · NO44¢ → 22¢
Signal endedAug 4
Jul 28 forecast
The US strike pause began too late—around July 24—so the required 14-day window will not finish until about August 7, making a Yes resolution by July 31 almost impossible.
Points to NO
- US strikes on Iran were reported consistently through about July 24, resetting the 14-day clock to start July 25 and pushing completion to ~August 7, past the July 31 deadline.Evidence
- The resolution criteria tie resolution to the July 31 end date, and standard interpretation requires the 14-day span to be completed within the assessment window, not merely started.Evidence
- There is no credible reporting of a US strike on Iran between July 25 and July 27, confirming the pause but not altering the clock start.Evidence
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