Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold−1%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 43¢
Our position · NO58¢ → 57¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 12 forecast
Iran is unlikely to impose a mandatory Hormuz fee by August 31, because prolonged traffic halts after its closure of the strait block any collection scheme.
Intense kinetic escalation and halted traffic strongly favor a NO resolution, either through prolonged closure or a non-compulsory diplomatic compromise.
Points to NO
- US military struck 140 Iranian sites, July 12US military struck approximately 140 Iranian sites, July 12
- IRGC declared Strait of Hormuz closed, July 12IRGC declared Strait of Hormuz closed again, July 12
- US demanded toll-free transit, July 11US demanded Iran publicly state Hormuz is open toll-free, July 11
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